With Lower Q1 Insured Losses, Re/insurers Well-Placed for More Costly Quarters Ahead

Global and regional natural catastrophe activity and loss totals were lower in the first quarter of 2026 than in comparable quarters of previous years, leaving the re/insurance industry well-positioned as it heads into the more costly second and third quarters, according to Gallagher Re.

“We now estimate that it would require a single event (or a series of large events) resulting in an insured loss of at least $115 billion to $125 billion – above the expected average annual catastrophe losses – to meaningfully impact the trajectory of pricing in the property sector of the industry,” Gallagher Re said.

Q1 insured losses from natural disasters hit approximately $20 billion, agreed Aon and Gallagher Re in their Q1 nat cat market overviews.

“The manageable start to 2026 continues a trend of lower loss quarters for insurers,” said Gallagher Re in its report titled “Q1 2026 Gallagher Re Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report.”

Gallagher Re said global insured losses of at least $20 billion were 26% below the decadal average of $26 billion.

According to Aon’s calculations, the $20 billion in global insured losses is 6% above the 21^st century average, but broadly in line with the average since 2000. The largest contributors to the overall insured price tag were winter storm and severe convective storm outbreaks in the United States, said Aon’s Global Catastrophe Recap – First Quarter of 2026.

Aon noted that natural catastrophes in the U.S. accounted for 79% of global insured losses in Q1 of 2026, or approximately $16 billion.

Economic Losses

The two brokers differed in their estimates of economic disaster losses – which include both insured and uninsured losses.

Gallagher Re’s estimate of economic losses from natural disasters is a minimum of $58 billion, or 12% below the 10-year Q1 average ($67 billion). “The below average loss totals are largely due to a later start to U.S. convective storm activity and the absence of more billion-dollar industry events.”

Aon’s calculation of Q1 economic losses was approximately $37 billion, which is well below the 21^st century average of $64 billion, and at their lowest since 2015.

As a result of the difference in the two brokers’ estimates for economic losses, their insurance protection gap totals were also different. (The protection gap is the share of economic losses not covered by insurance).

Aon’s explained that its estimate was relatively low at approximately 46% – as the majority of the disaster activity occurred in relatively well-insured regions of the United States and Europe.

On the other hand, Gallagher Re’s protection gap percentage hit an estimated 67%, as it included detailed flood losses in Europe and Africa.

Aon noted that the largest portion of global economic losses were due to flooding and severe convective storms, with SCS highlighted as the most damaging peril for insurers – especially in the U.S., where the single costliest SCS event (March 10-12) resulted in a $5 billion economic loss and an insured loss of $4 billion.

There were also major flood events in Western and Southern Europe, South America and elsewhere, Aon said.

Other findings from the reports include:

• Economic losses were significantly above average in Europe, where a sequence of flooding and windstorm events resulted in total physical damage approaching $10 billion, Aon said.
• There were at least 12 events that had total economic losses of at least $1 billion, Aon added.
• Aon said there were at least three European billion-dollar events, including the series of flooding across the Iberian Peninsula, Windstorm Kristin in Portugal, storm Harry in the Central Mediterranean.
• Gallagher Re said that despite manageable loss costs for the quarter, the European windstorm peril has already driven its highest calendar year economic loss costs since 1999 on an economic basis – but most losses were flood-driven and not caused by damaging winds.
• There is a growing possibility that there could be a return of a potentially strong El Niño phase by June or July, which often leads to lower hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin but higher storm frequency in the Pacific basin, Gallagher Re said.
• At least 1,640 people were killed due to natural disasters during the first quarter, which is well below the 21^st century Q1 average of 12,190, Aon said.

Photograph: Police officers and marines evacuate residents from a hotel by inflatable boat along a flooded street after the Sado River overflowed following heavy rains in Alcácer do Sal, southern Portugal, Friday, Feb. 6, 2026. (AP Photo/Ana Brigida)

Topics
Carriers
Profit Loss
Reinsurance