Prediction Markets Promise Easy Money, But a New Investigation Shows Most Users Are Losing

Prediction markets have exploded in popularity, fueled by social media influencers, viral livestreams, and the promise that anyone can win life-changing returns. For most users, the reality tells a very different story.

“Kalshi is becoming rapidly integrated into daily life with always on odds for markets across finance, crypto, pop culture, and sports,” Bank of America analysts Julie Hoover and Shaun Kelley wrote in a report last month, according to Bloomberg.

A Wall Street Journal analysis of platform data and trader interviews painted a stark picture of who actually profits on these platforms. On Polymarket, out of more than 2 million users, fewer than 2,000 accounts took home 67 percent of all profits.

At Kalshi, a company spokeswoman said unprofitable users outnumber profitable ones by nearly three to one, though she noted the figure is subject to change as the platform grows.

Instead, casual traders are bleeding cash while a small number of sophisticated pros—including trading firms with access to vast streams of data—eat their lunch, according to a WSJ analysis of platform data and interviews with traders.

Casual traders systematically “have no chance,” a former professional poker player and statistician by training Michael Boss told the WSJ. On Kalshi, Boss places 60 trades a minute and modifies his bids and asks 30 times a second. That stands in sharp contrast to the young, social media-influenced users the platforms are actively courting, many of whom discover the sites through influencers promoting their wins online.

The analysis found that more than 70 percent of Polymarket users lose money. A typical user is down between $1 and $100, while the least successful 10 percent of traders have lost an average of $4,000 each.